10 New Year Resolutions for Punters

With the start of the 2023 looming up fast, it is a time for pause (in the case of racing, a rare break for a few days with no wall to wall action) and reflection on what went wrong (or right) in 2022.

Here are my 10 New Year resolutions to sharpen your mind and hone your punting throughout 2023.

In this article:

1. Focus on a specific area of expertise
2. Play longer term and don’t chase
3. The odds are absolutely everything
4. Cut out completely the “for an interest” bets
5. Keep a completely separate betting bank away from everyday bills
6. Have a number of betting accounts
7. Take regular break from betting
8. Trust your own judgment
9. Get the staking right
10. Enjoy your betting

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#1 – Focus on a specific area of expertise

It is virtually impossible to cover all subjects properly. The best and most long-standing backers find an area where they know far more than the market. Whether it is lower league football, greyhounds, table tennis or baseball, you need to thoroughly immerse yourself in every possible angle of your particular subject.

One of the problems with top level football, or even high class racing is that the subject is done to death in the mainstream media and everything is largely out in the open. You simply won’t be getting 2/1 about a 6/4 chance.

Find a more obscure event, hone in on it, make detailed notes about it. Doing so you will find edges over the market. Obviously getting on in any meaningful size does then become a problem if you are successful over time, but by using betting exchanges and betting shops (if possible), you can still capitalise on your honed opinion.

#2 – Play longer term and don’t chase

The major failing of all punters is to live in the short term. How they go on the day is the be all and end all. Stakes rise to chase earlier losses and to try and have a “won small” day.

When I was an on course bookmaker in the past, if the early results had gone against the punters, you would find that turnover on the last few races would be dramatically higher. They would accept much shorter prices for their fancy just in a bid to smash out of it by the end of the night (some punters even worry if a price is “too big” and the bookie must “know something”).

This mindset has to change. Wager month to month, or even quarter to quarter. It slows things down and avoids the “going on tilt” mentality that can quickly ruin months of meticulous profit building. Keep a completely separate bank account for all your betting activity. This provides a clear idea of how effective your betting has been over several months. It also keeps things separate from all day to day living expenses.

#3 – The odds are absolutely everything

Stop fancying teams or horses and start understanding true prices. This can only be done by forming a “tissue” of prices for the events you choose to bet on. Getting into the habit of doing this is a great way of identifying bets and stopping the “backing what you fancy” mentality. You can train yourself to be a completely disciplined and profitable punter by having an accurate framework of the real chances of various outcomes in your chosen subject.

Form your prices to 100% (removing any margin for the layer), and bet where a bigger price is on offer. Bookmakers love laying underpriced thin prices that the public want to be “on”, regardless of the strength of the opposition. These tend to be the established names, i.e Liverpool in the football or a Willie Mullins trained favourite at Cheltenham, and rarely, if ever, offer much in the way of juice from a long term point of view.

#4 – Cut out completely the “for an interest” bets

This is something that drags even the best of punters down and something we all fall prey to..With the advent of mobile betting especially dangerous in this regard. It is all too easy to sit down in front of the TV at the end of the day and punt away on whatever match or event is on, with a beer in hand and very little insight into what you are betting on.

If this is just a leisure thing for tiny stakes then fair enough, it can be a way of relaxing and unwinding, but for many the stakes on these events (when chasing a bad day, or with drink fuelled confidence) are greater than those placed on a thought-out and planned strong bet earlier on. These “action junkies” are a bookmakers dream and people who bet on a wide range of televised, live sports most evenings are ones that the rampant PR departments strive to find.

#5- Keep a completely separate betting bank away from everyday bills

Try and divide your living expenses i.e bills and taxes from your betting account. It is much easier to keep a record of how you are going if the “tank” is a totally separate figure.

Furthermore it encourages a considered approach to betting without all the distractions and grief from “normal life”. It also provides a safety net when things go wrong. You might back ten losers on the turn, but at least you will be able to turn the heating on for five minutes in the evening to get the frost out the living room carpet!

#6- Have a number of betting accounts

It really is worth getting a betting account up and running with every bookmaker possible (without leaving loads of cash in any of them). There is massive competition for the punters money these days (with more and more firms cutting their throats in a bid to snare a few recreational players into the casino and games).

Take advantage of their generous offers without becoming a loyal, indiscriminate punter. If your stakes are reduced to pennies, take it as proof you are doing a few things right and move on to the next one. Have access to betting exchanges where the margins against punters are very small. There are now at least three fairly liquid exchanges that all offer some fantastic betting opportunities for astute players.

#7- Take regular break from betting

Knowing when to turn the computer off and have a break from betting is a vital part. None of us perform well when stale from twelve hours of solid punting without break. Keep regular hours and try to have planned breaks throughout the year.

Time away from the game can be more valuable than flogging your guts out 24/7 and it is amazing how revitalised you feel just from a short, regular change of scenery. Isolation can be the hardest part of this game, and keeping some interests outside of betting is absolutely vital (and preferably with people who have no interest in sport or betting).

#8- Trust your own judgment

So many punters prefer a “hot inside tip” over what their own head is telling them. I have lost count of the amount of people who ask for tips on the horses (or pay tipping lines for the privileged info), not trusting their own views and looking for a golden magic bullet to make money.

It is far better to hone your own opinion rather than listen to second hand advice that, 9 times out of 10, will already be flagged up in the market. Especially in the exchange driven age, there is rarely any juice in the price of something that has been widely touted to a rather gullible public.

Use your eyes, watch racing and make notes on it. Price it up. Search for discrepancies in prices, bet each-way when the terms are in your favour etc etc. It’s less glamorous and exciting than a “whisper” that horse A is “flying up the gallops working to a rating of a 100, and is now in a handicap at 3pm off just 62” but experience tells me that you will go skint listening to rumour rather than concentrating on the form.

#9- Get the staking right

This is undoubtedly something that is far easier said than done and something we all struggle with (even the most battle hardened punter with a long record of profit can get things wrong). My main fault down the years has been playing far too big when things are going well and you feel invincible. You can put up winner after winner, but getting carried away with self belief is a dangerous thing. Four or five losers when stakes raced out of hand can quickly eradicate recent profits and dissolve confidence. Try to stay calm and balanced especially when things are going particularly well or badly.

Try and play on a scale of 1 to 10, with bigger bets placed when the price discrepancy is greatest i.e when the price available is bigger than your assessment of the true chance to 100pc.

Clearly this is an over-simplification and, with Betfair prices derived by some of the sharpest minds in the game, this can be overstated (your strong fancy for the first race may have just bolted to post in a muck sweat). But as a general rule it holds true. There is no use having your “maximum” on something just because it is a very short price (many punters have more and more on especially with odds on chances but there is no real logic to this strategy and it will not pay over time).

#10- Enjoy your betting

While betting successfully takes patience and iron discipline, there still has to be an element of enjoyment about it all. There is no doubt that the enthusiasm of many gnarled old pro’s has been diminished as the exchange driven age has effectively eliminated a lot of the juice (and given the industry an accurate tissue, close to the off on an event at least when all the cards have been played).

However, it is important to stay enthused and interested, constantly searching for new angles in a rapidly evolving game.

Some of the best and most intelligent thinkers get bogged down in the details, over-thinking everything and eroding their own instincts. These number crunchers tend to be very good at finding winners after the event but struggle to match prices accurately to data pre-event.

“Paralysis by analysis” has gripped many very clever people in the game, who regularly fail to transfer their mountains of data into finding winning bets.

It is all about striking a perfect balance between temperament, discipline, staking and being able to get on at the right prices.

Anyone who achieves that perfect mix is certain to enjoy their betting and enhance their returns in 2023.