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The action comes thick and fast over Christmas and New Year in the jumping game, with all the big yards keen to get their top horses out now that the rains have finally arrived and eased the ground conditions suitably.
This has been a very strange stop-start NH season so far, with firm conditions keeping field sizes very low in the Autumn and then the “big freeze” in December ruling racing out altogether for a couple of weeks. However, momentum is certainly gathering now, with thoughts inevitably turning towards the Cheltenham Festival in March. Here at bettingexpert we have analysed the last couple of weeks of action and compiled ten horses to keep on side of over the next few critical winter months.
In this article:
Paul Nicholls top class stayer enhanced his Gold Cup claims at Kempton on Boxing Day, jumping soundly despite being inconvenienced by L’Homme Presse at several of the fences, and showing tremendous stamina to power clear before the last.
He is an uncomplicated ride who seems to be really improving at the age of eight, with 7 wins from 8 starts in this sphere and plenty more to come.
There is no doubt he is my far the best of the British contenders (now a top priced 10/1 chance), but the suspicion remains that the Irish form is a lot stronger overall and he did disappoint a touch on his only previous run at Cheltenham in the 2021 Ballymore Hurdle.
Willie Mullins enjoyed a fantastic time of things over the busy festive period, and he has never made any secret of the regard in which he holds his cracking novice. He has now landed long odds-on in two starts over hurdles in recent weeks, unchallenged in making nearly all of the running at Fairyhouse and Leopardstown, and remains unbeaten after six career starts under Rules.
To be super critical he did rather grab at a couple of his hurdles, and will obviously face stronger opposition in March, but the current price around 5/4 for the Supreme does look fair enough and he is certainly going to be one of the “Irish bankers” of the week.
The Champion Hurdle seems sure to see one of the shortest priced favourites ever in Nicky Henderson’s superstar, with perhaps only State Man a realistic rival in the form-book at this stage. He continued his dominance of this division with a brilliant display in the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton, making all/jumping superbly and sprinting clear when asked to extend turning for home. A career record of 5/5 under Rules (second in his only point in Ireland) means this is still early days, but visually he really does look the real deal and his veteran trainer has had plenty to measure him against at home in the past.
A big price tag meant this scopey novice was always going to be high up the pecking order at Ditcheat, but he had been showing only modest ability at home before his debut at Stratford in October. He won in style there however, and has not stopped thriving since, routing a fair field at Cheltenham and then really impressing in bad ground at Newbury in the Grade 1 Challow.
He deserves extra credit there, chasing a tearaway leader on his own from halfway, and sustaining a relentless gallop up the straight with Harry Cobden able to ease down after the last. A quote of 3/1f for the Ballymore at the festival looks realistic, though it will be over fences that he really comes into his own in 2024 and beyond.
A Plus Tard missed an intended engagement over Christmas with a late injury scare, and his current wellbeing certainly gives the Gold Cup a wide open look at this stage. The current 3/1f in the ante-post lists is Willie Mullins talented 7-y-o, and he did his prospects no harm at all with a bloodless 2/9f stroll in the Grade 1 John Durkan at Punchestown.
He was given a more patient ride than previously over fences, not asked to lead initially but still readily coming clear from two out for just a hand-ride from Paul Townend. Stamina remains the big question mark about his claims, with just one run over hurdles at 3m, and the 3m2f Gold Cup trip could find him out if the ground comes up testing in March.
Gary Moore would not be known for big priced winners, with the yard extremely astute and money rarely misplaced, but he sent out a shock 66/1 chance in Jupiter du Gite at Newbury on New Years Eve. There was no fluke either about his devastating display in the heavy ground, tanking at a fast pace throughout and seeing off the 2/7f Jet Powered halfway up the long straight.
He was described afterwards by his bemused trainer as a “lunatic who has to work alone at home”, reportedly “going ballistic when being saddled up pre-race”, but there is no doubting his big engine and a heavy ground Triumph hurdle in March would bring him right into the picture (currently a best priced 10/1 chance).
Jonbon has already laid down a strong Arkle marker with impressive frontrunning wins at Warwick and Sandown in strong company (with Boothill franking the form over Christmas), but the Irish always have a very strong hand and Willie Muillins unveiled a real challenger in his classy 7-y-o.
He was sent off a warm 2/5f for his first run over fences at Leopardstown, jumping slickly at a brisk pace and never giving his backers a moments worry in coming home alone.
There should be plenty more to come after that first run in 8 months, and the only slight doubt about him is he took a pearler of a fall when making his only previous visit to Cheltenham at the 2022 Festival (looking set to be swamped/tired/headed when crashed out three out in the Supreme behind Constitution Hill).
The Stayers Hurdle looks wide open, with the big names from previous years all looking highly vulnerable at the highest level (Champ/Paisley Park beating each other in turn and Flooring Porter not at his best twice this winter), so the way looks clear for a young pretender to burst onto the scene.
The one who really caught the eye is this rapidly improving Irish “handicapper”, who did not come off the bridle to land a competitive Pertemps Qualifier at Leopardstown. He has surely ruined his mark now in that sphere, but is clearly rapidly improving and could well be the one to side with if his astute connections decide to step up into Graded company with their thorough stayer (more to come after just 10 career runs).
The forgotten horse of the Gold Cup market had been Gordon Elliott’s classy performer, but he got his career back on track in the Savills Chase and is reportedly being aimed at the big one in March.
He jumped soundly under Jack Kennedy, comfortably brushing aside the veteran Kemboy three out and winning fairly readily in the end. Whether this form is anywhere near good enough has to be doubtful, and he is now pretty exposed after 14 runs over fences.
Evan Williams has some cracking young novices in his yard this season, and his 5-y-o created a deep impression when winning a hotly contested big field Chepstow novice hurdle.
He had caught the eye on his hurdling debut here previously, and those that hammered him into 7/4f from 4/1 in the morning rarely had a moments worry as Adam Wedge made all of the running at a brisk clip on the soft ground. He is every inch a chaser on looks who is going to make a cracking three miler in time, but for now looks one to follow up the ranks into Graded company over the next few months.