football | Thursday, December 8, 2022 12:57 PM (Revised at: Thursday, December 8, 2022 1:35 PM)

What Were the Odds of That?: Round of 16, World Cup 2022

Andrew Brocker

The Round of 16 has concluded and we’re all set for the quarter finals to begin. While the majority of tournament favourites have progressed, the upsets keep coming. Let’s take a look at the odds.

In this article:

World Cup Winner Odds Movement
World Cup Round of 16 Betting Results
Group & Qualification Results
World Cup Round 3 Betting Results

A World Cup Full of Shocks

Of the World Cups through the modern betting era (1998 to 2022), five of the top eleven upsets have occurred at this World Cup including the biggest World Cup shock result, Saudi Arabia over Argentina in the opening round of the group stage.

While the Round of 16 did not see any upsets of this stature, the tournament did not leave the round without sending one tournament favourite heading home. Morocco entered their round of 16 match with Spain at odds of 6.0 to win in regulation time and odds 4.30 to progress. Morocco would ultimately progress following a disastrous penalty shoot performance by the Spanish.

Plenty of Goals

While the knockout stage of both the World Cup and Euros have historically been notorious for low scoring dour matches, this World Cup saw a total of 28 goals across the eight matches, an average of 3.5 goals per match with all but three of the sixteen nations scoring.

World Cup Winner Odds Movement

Eight nations remains with Brazil still favoured to win the 2022 World Cup. Portugal have been the big movers, in from a starting price of 17.0 to now odds of 7.50, thanks primarily to their draw. Portugal will now play Morocco, entering the quarter final match up as firm favourites. Should they progress, they will then play the winner of England and France in the semi finals.

Every quarter final nation has shortened in odds except for the Netherlands who are now out to odds of 18.0 having started the tournament at odds of 15.0. The Netherlands enjoyed an easy run to the quarter finals but will now face Argentina. Should they progress, they will then likely face Brazil in the semi finals.

NATION	STARTING ODDS	CURRENT ODDS
Brazil	4.50	3.00
France	10.00	6.00
Argentina	7.00	7.00
Portugal	17.00	7.50
England	11.50	8.00
Netherlands	15.00	18.00
Croatia	67.00	51.00
Morocco	351.00	51.00
Spain	11.00	ELIMINATED – Round of 16
Switzerland	126.00	ELIMINATED – Round of 16
Senegal	161.00	ELIMINATED – Round of 16
USA	226.00	ELIMINATED – Round of 16
Poland	280.00	ELIMINATED – Round of 16
Australia	501.00	ELIMINATED – Round of 16
Japan	501.00	ELIMINATED – Round of 16
South Korea	551.00	ELIMINATED – Round of 16
Germany	13.00	ELIMINATED – Group
Belgium	21.00	ELIMINATED – Group
Denmark	31.00	ELIMINATED – Group
Uruguay	42.00	ELIMINATED – Group
Serbia	121.00	ELIMINATED – Group
Mexico	201.00	ELIMINATED – Group
Wales	276.00	ELIMINATED – Group
Ecuador	301.00	ELIMINATED – Group
Qatar	501.00	ELIMINATED – Group
Iran	501.00	ELIMINATED – Group
Canada	501.00	ELIMINATED – Group
Cameroon	651.00	ELIMINATED – Group
Ghana	751.00	ELIMINATED – Group
Tunisia	1001.00	ELIMINATED – Group
Saudi Arabia	1001.00	ELIMINATED – Group
Costa Rica	1001.00	ELIMINATED – Group

World Cup 2022, Round of 16 Betting Results

Netherlands 3, USA 1

Round 16, December 3rd

Results for Netherlands vs USA, 2022 World Cup. Odds are closing odds at bet365:

1X2 Result: Netherlands, 1.90
Asian handicap: Netherlands -0.5, 1.96
Draw No Bet: Netherlands, 1.36
Over Under: Over 2.25 goals, 2.06
Both teams to score: Yes, 2.0
Correct Score: 3-1, 19.0
Halftime/Fulltime: Netherlands/Netherlands, 3.40

Argentina 2, Australia 1

Round 16, December 3rd

Results for Argentina vs Australia, 2022 World Cup. Odds are closing odds at bet365:

1X2 Result: Argentina, 1.28
Asian handicap: Australia +1.5, 2.04
Draw No Bet: Argentina, 1.08
Over Under: Over 2.75 goals, Half won, 2.06
Both teams to score: Yes, 2.37
Correct Score: 2-1, 11.0
Halftime/Fulltime: Argentina/Argentina, 1.90

France 3, Poland 1

Round 16, December 4th

Results for France vs Poland, 2022 World Cup. Odds are closing odds at bet365:

1X2 Result: France, 1.36
Asian handicap: France -1.25, 1.90
Draw No Bet: France, 1.11
Over Under: Over 2.75 goals, 2.02
Both teams to score: Yes, 2.0
Correct Score: 3-1, 13.0
Halftime/Fulltime: France/France, 2.05

England 3, Senegal 0

Round 16, December 4th

Results for England vs Senegal, 2022 World Cup. Odds are closing odds at bet365:

1X2 Result: England, 1.60
Asian handicap: England -1, 2.13
Draw No Bet: England, 1.18
Over Under: Over 2.25 goals, 2.14
Both teams to score: No, 1.53
Correct Score: 3-0, 13.0
Halftime/Fulltime: England/England, 2.87

Croatia 1, Japan 1

Croatia advance on penalties

Round 16, December 5th

Results for Japan vs Croatia, 2022 World Cup. Odds are closing odds at bet365:

1X2 Result: Draw, 3.25
Asian handicap: Japan +0.5, 1.80
Draw No Bet: Push
Over Under: Under 2.25 goals, Half win, 1.82
Both teams to score: Yes, 2.0
Correct Score: 1-1, 7.0
Halftime/Fulltime: Japan/Draw, 15.0

Brazil 4, South Korea 1

Round 16, December 5th

Results for Brazil vs South Korea, 2022 World Cup. Odds are closing odds at bet365:

1X2 Result: Brazil, 1.20
Asian handicap: Brazil -1.75, 1.86
Draw No Bet: Brazil, 1.05
Over Under: Over 2.75 goals, 1.90
Both teams to score: Yes, 2.50
Correct Score: 4-1, 21.0
Halftime/Fulltime: Brazil/Brazil, 1.72

Morocco 0, Spain 0

Morocco advance on penalties

Round 16, December 6th

Results for Spain vs Morocco, 2022 World Cup. Odds are closing odds at bet365:

1X2 Result: Draw, 3.75
Asian handicap: Morocco +0.75, 2.0
Draw No Bet: Push
Over Under: Under 2.25 goals, 1.94
Both teams to score: No, 1.67
Correct Score: 0-0, 8.50
Halftime/Fulltime: Draw/Draw, 4.75

Portugal 6, Switzerland 1

Round 16, December 6th

Results for Portugal vs Switzerland, 2022 World Cup. Odds are closing odds at bet365:

1X2 Result: Portugal, 2.0
Asian handicap: Portugal -0.5, 2.05
Draw No Bet: Portugal, 1.44
Over Under: Over 2.5 goals, 1.89
Both teams to score: Yes, 1.70
Correct Score: 6-1, 201.0
Halftime/Fulltime: Portugal/Portugal, 3.10

World Cup 2022 Group & Qualification Odds

Group A Results

Group A began with results going to script. Ecuador made light work of hosts Qatar while the Netherlands did enough to defeat Senegal, with the scoreline somewhat flattering. Round two saw Qatar eliminated from the tournament while Ecuador were unlucky to not get the win over the Dutch. The final round saw Ecuador surrendering their qualification to Senegal losing 2-1 while Netherlands took care of business against Qatar, giving them first place in the group.

Rnd	Date	Team	Team	Score	1 Odds	X Odds	2 ODDS
1	20.11	Qatar	Ecuador	0-2	3.95	3.20	2.35
1	21.11	Senegal	Netherlands	0-2	6.28	3.75	1.68
2	25.11.	Qatar	Senegal	1-3	6.00	3.66	1.79
2	25.11.	Netherlands	Ecuador	1-1	1.90	3.55	5.25
3	29.11.	Ecuador	Senegal	1-2	2.60	3.15	3.35
3	29.11.	Netherlands	Qatar	2-0	1.24	7.50	16.00

Group A Winner & Qualification

Netherlands began group play as firm favourites to get the job done, and while they drew to Ecuador, the Dutch managed to secure first place in the group and a meeting with the USA in the Round of 16.

Win Group A	Starting Odds	Current Odds
Netherlands	1.53	WON GROUP
Senegal	6.50	QUALIFIED
Ecuador	7.00	ELIMINATED
Qatar	19.50	ELIMINATED

The battle for second place in the group came down to the final round of the group stage with Senegal securing their qualification thanks to a Koulibaly goal in the 70th minute to give them a 2-1 lead they would not give up.

Qualify Group A	Starting Odds	Current Odds
Netherlands	1.13	WON GROUP
Senegal	2.00	QUALIFIED
Ecuador	2.20	ELIMINATED
Qatar	4.50	ELIMINATED

Group B Results

England put the sword to Iran to open the tournament while the USA battled Wales to a 1-1 draw. The second round saw the Welsh on the brink of elimination following their last minute collapse against Iran while the promising start by the English was soon forgotten as they wrestled to a 0-0 draw with the USA. The final round saw Wales eliminated with England securing top spot with a 3-0 win while Iran very nearly snatched second place from the USA in the final moments.

Rnd	Date	Team	Team	Score	1 ODDS	X ODDS	2 ODDS
1	21.11	England	Iran	6-2	1.40	4.84	11.75
1	21.11	USA	Wales	1-1	2.55	3.15	3.45
2	25.11.	Wales	Iran	0-2	2.23	3.26	4.31
2	25.11.	England	USA	0-0	1.55	4.40	8.69
3	29.11.	Iran	USA	0-1	4.61	3.55	2.05
3	29.11.	Wales	England	0-3	10.0	4.60	1.45

Group B Winner & Qualification

England began favourites and despite their stumble against the USA, put things to bed with their 3-0 win over Wales in the final round of group action.

Win Group B	Starting Odds	Current Odds
England	1.44	WON GROUP
USA	6.50	QUALIFIED
Iran	17.00	ELIMINATED
Wales	7.00	ELIMINATED

Each nation began the tournament with genuine hopes of earning qualification. But it was the USA who took second place in Group B, with Iran almost securing the needed draw in the final moments of their match in round 3.

Qualify Group B	Starting Odds	Current Odds
England	1.12	WON GROUP
USA	2.10	QUALIFIED
Iran	4.33	ELIMINATED
Wales	2.38	ELIMINATEd

Group C Results

The greatest upset in World Cup history saw Saudi Arabia enter serious qualification calculations with their 2-1 win over Argentina, while Poland and Mexico went scoreless. Poland righted the ship with their 2-0 win over Saudi Arabia in round two while a slow starting Argentina found their magic, defeating Mexico 2-0.

Rnd	Date	Team	Team	Score	1 ODDS	X ODDS	2 ODDS
1	22.11.	Argentina	Saudi Arabia	1-2	1.14	10.50	35.00
1	22.11.	Mexico	Poland	0-0	2.64	3.25	3.24
2	26.11.	Poland	Saudi Arabia	2-0	1.80	3.80	5.75
2	26.11.	Argentina	Mexico	2-0	1.61	4.10	7.97
3	30.11.	Poland	Argentina	0-2	8.60	4.70	1.50
3	30.11.	Saudi Arabia	Mexico	1-2	5.50	4.50	1.67

Group C Winner & Qualification

Despite their first round loss to Saudi Arabia, Argentina did enough to win the group and looked good doing so. Their 2-0 victory over Poland in the final round secured first place, making them the third group favourite to finish atop their group so far this World Cup.

Win Group C	Starting Odds	Current Odds
Argentina	1.40	WON GROUP
Poland	7.00	QUALIFIED
Saudi Arabia	34.00	ELIMINATED
Mexico	6.75	ELIMINATED

Mexico. Oh Mexico. With only moments to play, Mexico was going through to the knockout stage over Poland thanks to a superior yellow card record. But Poland would earn their way thanks to a late Saudi Arabian goal, leaving Mexico out in the cold and Poland a date in the Round of 16 with France.

Qualify Group C	Starting Odds	Current Odds
Argentina	1.09	WON GROUP
Poland	2.00	QUALIFIED
Saudi Arabia	8.00	ELIMINATED
Mexico	1.91	ELIMINATED

Group D Results

Tunisia surprised many with their 0-0 result to start the tournament opposing Denmark and while the Australians scored first, it would be far from enough with France winning comfortably. Round two saw the Australians get a valuable win over Tunisia while France booked their ticket for the knockout stage with a 2-1 win over Denmark. The final round would see two major upsets. With little to play for France, Tunisia kept their World Cup hopes alive with a 1-0 victory. It would be for nothing with Australia securing an unlikely place in the Round of 16.

Rnd	Date	Team	Team	Score	1 ODDS	X ODDS	2 ODDS
1	22.11.	Denmark	Tunisia	0-0	1.61	4.09	7.50
1	22.11.	France	Australia	4-1	1.27	7.28	18.00
2	26.11.	Tunisia	Australia	0-1	2.25	3.55	3.65
2	26.11.	France	Denmark	2-1	1.86	3.69	5.18
3	30.11.	Australia	Denmark	1-0	8.70	5.13	1.46
3	30.11.	Tunisia	France	1-0	6.62	4.00	1.65

Group D Winner & Qualification

Yet another group goes to the pre-tournament favourite as France wins Group D. While Denmark began the tournament with genuine hopes of topping the group, the Danes would ultimately finish last after securing a mere single point.

Win Group D	Starting Odds	Current Odds
France	1.58	WON GROUP
Denmark	3.25	ELIMINATED
Tunisia	21.00	ELIMINATED
Australia	26.00	ELIMINATED

Denmark required a victory in their final group match to secure a place in the Round of 16. Australia would deny them, winning the match 1-0 and earning a knockout stage place having begun at odds of 6.0 to do so.

Qualify Group D	Starting Odds	Current Odds
France	1.10	WON GROUP
Australia	6.00	QUALIFIED
Denmark	1.36	ELIMINATED
Tunisia	5.50	ELIMINATED

Group E Results

Another day, another upset as Japan defeated Germany after trailing 1-0. Spain made easy work of Costa Rica, scoring seven. Costa Rica then returned Japan to earth with a thud, taking an unlikely 1-0 victory before Germany secured a late to remain in the tournament thanks to their 1-1 draw with Spain. Entering the final round, Germany looked set to qualify. Despite their 4-2 victory over Costa Rica, Germany would be eliminated thanks to Japan’s 2-1 victory over Spain.

Rnd	Date	Team	Team	Score	1 ODDS	X ODDS	2 ODDS
1	23.11.	Germany	Japan	1-2	1.55	5.20	7.80
1	23.11.	Spain	Costa Rica	7-0	1.25	9.50	21.50
2	27.11.	Japan	Costa Rica	0-1	1.52	4.50	8.20
2	27.11.	Spain	Germany	1-1	2.60	3.56	2.92
3	01.12.	Costa Rica	Germany	2-4	31.0	14.50	1.12
3	01.12.	Japan	Spain	2-1	8.0	4.90	1.56

Group E

Japan top Group E thanks to their 2-1 victory over Spain in the final round of the group stage. While Spain and Germany were expected to battle it out for first place, Japan would take first place having begun the tournament at odds of 15.0 to do so.

Win Group E	Starting Odds	Current Odds
Japan	15.00	WON GROUP
Spain	2.02	ELIMINATED
Costa Rica	70.00	ELIMINATED
Germany	2.20	ELIMINATED

At one stage of the final round, both Japan and Costa Rica were set to qualify from the group, with both nations leading 2-1 midway through the second half. Japan would hold for the victory and top the group while Spain would qualify thanks to Germany’s 4-2 victory over Costa Rica.

Qualify Group E	Starting Odds	Current Odds
Japan	4.33	QUALIFIED
Spain	1.13	QUALIFIED
Germany	1.17	ELIMINATED
Costa Rica	15.00	ELIMINATED

Group F Results

A group that saw little action until Croatia put four goals beyond Canada in the second round. The story of the group was Belgium, who claimed a fortunate victory to open the tournament before losing 2-0 to Morocco in the second round. Belgium failed to make the knockout stage thanks to their 0-0 draw with Croatia in the final round while Morocco, yes, Morocco top the group following their 2-1 victory over Canada.

Rnd	Date	Team	Team	Score	1 ODDS	X ODDS	2 ODDS
1	23.11.	Morocco	Croatia	0-0	3.88	3.30	2.29
1	23.11.	Belgium	Canada	1-0	1.65	4.60	6.75
2	27.11.	Belgium	Morocco	0-2	2.01	3.61	4.90
2	27.11.	Croatia	Canada	4-1	2.31	3.35	3.96
3	01.12.	Canada	Morocco	1-2	5.32	3.60	1.90
3	01.12.	Croatia	Belgium	0-0	3.19	3.55	2.55

Group F

Starting the tournament at odds of 11.0 to do so, Morocco would win Group F, setting up a Round of 16 match with Spain while Belgium, the great disappointments of the tournament thus far, failed to win the group starting at odds of 1.85.

Win Group F	Starting Odds	Current Odds
Morocco	11.00	WON GROUP
Croatia	3.25	ELIMINATED
Belgium	1.85	ELIMINATED
Canada	14.50	ELIMINATED

Belgium began the tournament at odds 1.20 to earn a place in the knockout stage but failed, with Croatia earning second place behind Morocco, who began the tournament at odds 3.20 to earn qualification for the next stage.

Qualify Group F	Starting Odds	Current Odds
Morocco	3.20	QUALIFIED
Croatia	1.53	QUALIFIED
Belgium	1.20	ELIMINATED
Canada	4.25	ELIMINATED

Group G Results

Brazil commanded the group winning their opening match 2-0 over Serbia while Switzerland set up a likely qualification campaign after their victory of Cameroon. Round two would see one of the matches of the tournament with Serbia conceding a 3-1 lead to draw 3-3 with Cameroon before a dogged Switzerland would concede late to give Brazil their second victory of this World Cup. Cameroon delivered yet another upset at this World Cup with a final round victory over Brazil, while Switzerland earned qualification for the knockout stage in a spiteful contest with Serbia.

Rnd	Date	Team	Team	Score	1 ODDS	X ODDS	2 ODDS
1	24.11.	Switzerland	Cameroon	1-0	1.88	3.55	5.50
1	24.11.	Brazil	Serbia	2-0	1.50	4.80	8.13
2	28.11.	Cameroon	Serbia	3-3	5.75	3.90	1.80
2	28.11.	Brazil	Switzerland	1-0	1.53	4.40	8.50
3	02.12.	Cameroon	Brazil	1-0	11.0	5.50	1.43
3	02.12.	Serbia	Switzerland	2-3	2.61	3.52	2.95

Group G

Brazil progress despite their unexpected loss to Cameroon having begun the tournament at odds 1.40 to top the group.

Win Group G	Starting Odds	Current Odds
Brazil	1.40	WON GROUP
Switzerland	7.60	ELIMINATED
Serbia	7.50	ELIMINATED
Cameroon	30.00	ELIMINATED

Switzerland joined Brazil in the knockout stage thanks to their 3-2 victory over Serbia. The Swiss began the tournament at slightly longer odds than Serbia to earn qualification.

Qualify Group G	Starting Odds	Current Odds
Brazil	1.10	QUALIFIED
Switzerland	2.25	QUALIFIED
Serbia	2.10	ELIMINATED
Cameroon	5.00	ELIMINATED

Group H Results

A tedious start would see Uruguay draw 0-0 with South Korea with neither team snaring a shot on target. Portugal and Ghana would play out an entertaining 3-2 results before Ghana would feature against South Korea in one of the matches of the tournament, winning 3-2. Portugal would do enough to get the win over Uruguay despite conceding a number of chances. Uruguay took care of business and looked to be heading for the knockout stage until South Korea turned the tables and booked their ticket with a 2-1 victory over Portugal.

Rnd	Date	Team	Team	Score	1 ODDS	X ODDS	2 ODDS
1	24.11.	Uruguay	South Korea	0-0	1.82	3.65	5.29
1	24.11.	Portugal	Ghana	3-2	1.40	5.80	11.00
2	28.11.	South Korea	Ghana	2-3	2.84	3.20	2.90
2	28.11.	Portugal	Uruguay	2-0	2.00	3.50	4.71
3	02.12.	Ghana	Uruguay	0-2	4.90	3.93	1.88
3	02.12.	South Korea	Portugal	2-1	4.50	3.95	1.90

Group H

Portugal began the tournament at shorter than even money to win Group H and claimed the honours despite their final round loss to South Korea.

Win Group H	Starting Odds	Current Odds
Portugal	1.74	WON GROUP
Ghana	17.00	ELIMINATED
Uruguay	3.00	ELIMINATED
South Korea	13.00	ELIMINATED

South Korea pinched a knockout stage qualification spot with their final round 2-1 victory over Portugal, while Uruguay were the classic too little, too late, needing a third goal in their final round victory 2-0 over Ghana.