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Jack Wright is on hand with a The race for the final European qualification place in the German Bundesliga is hotting up and two of the chief protagonists collide here at Deutsche Bank Park.
Frankfurt are the team currently in possession of 6th in the table and a ticket to the Europa Conference League but Hoffenheim are closing in. A win here for Die Kraichgauer would close the gap between the two sides to just a solitary point with nine games remaining.
Our Frankfurt vs Hoffenheim prediction is for Frankfurt to win the match 2-1.
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Germany, Bundesliga, Sunday, March 10th, 16:30 (UK)
Frankfurt secured a vital three points last weekend ending a run of four league games without victory. The 2-1 win at Heidenheim consolidated their place in the top-six and kept a four point cushion to Hoffenheim in seventh.
Dino Toppmöller will hope that success will spark a return to form for his side who were winless in their previous six games across all competitions. That sequence included a loss over two legs to Royale Union Saint-Gilloise in the UEFA Europa Conference League, meaning this clash takes on greater importance as the only route for a return to European competition next term.
Hoffenheim kept the pressure on their hosts here by recording a second successive league win with a 2-1 victory over Bremen last weekend. A strong start, which saw them take a 2-0 first-half lead, proved to be enough despite a red card for Marius Bülter and a late rally from the visitors.
Frankfurt’s home form has been strong this season with just one Bundesliga defeat and despite drawing the last two outings they know a win here could end the chances of Pellegrino Matarazzo’s men catching them. The American head coach has seen his side win only one of their last seven league road trips which featured a run of four successive defeats before a draw at Wolfsburg and a shock win at Dortmund.
Much of Frankfurt’s hope for success in this fixture will rest on the shoulders of Omar Marmoush. The 25-year-old has been a great addition to the squad since moving from Wolfsburg in the summer, scoring ten times in the German top flight and providing five more assists.
The Egyptian international missed four games while representing his country at the African Cup of Nations but has returned in superb form, hitting the back of the net in successive games against Bochum, Freiburg and Wolfsburg. The run ended in last weekend’s trip to Heidenheim, but he will be keen to get on the scoresheet again here in front of his home fans.
Marmouh scored the Eagles opening goal in the reverse fixture when he cancelled out Maximilian Beier’s opener with just 11 minutes on the clock. Odds of 3.00 look very generous for the home side’s top scorer to bag again especially against visitors who concede plenty of chances.
Hoffenheim have conceded 373 shots this season so far, the third highest in Bundesliga, allowing an average of 18.2 on the road. With Marmoush out performing his xG of 6.9 he is a man to get onside when expected to get at least one clear sight of goal.
Over 2.5 goals or Both Teams to Score may not be backable and understandably prohibitive single prices, but I was a little surprised to see the combination coming in at an attractive 1.83. The goal avalanche in the Bundesliga may have slowed just a little, but we are still seeing an average of 3.17 per game. Second only to the English Premier League among the top five European leagues. While none of the other four can top the 63% of games featuring both teams scoring.
Hoffenheim’s visit tends to result in goals. Ten of their 12 away league games this term have clicked for over 2.5 goals-backers, with only the trip to Bayern Munich not seeing both teams score. That game being the only one in which Pellegrino Matarazzo’s men have failed to score while they have now gone 19 games without keeping a clean sheet across all venues.
This bet would also have won in five of the last seven league games here at Deutsche Bank Park and in each of the last five Frankfurt across all venues and competitions. As already mentioned the reverse fixture ended in a 3-1 away win with this selection clicking after 23 minutes. That made it an eighth successive meeting between these two which has seen both teams score and at least three goals.
Frankfurt vs Hoffenheim Prediction odds via bet365 as at 14:00, March 6th, 2024. Odds may now differ.
With no European commitments for either side we should have a fairly good read on the starting eleven’s we will see. The home side will be without Sasa Kalajdžić, who has returned to parent club Wolverhampton Wanderers and had surgery in London to repair his anterior cruciate ligament. Captain Sebastian Rode is also out for the remainder of the season, while Philipp Max faces a late check on his injured ribs.
The visitors are without the suspended pair of Marius Bülter and Pavel Kadeřábek. They join a lengthy injury list of Berisha, Geiger, John, Prömel and Skov on the sidelines.
Frankfurt possible starting lineup: Trapp, Tuta, Koch, Pacho, Buta, Larsson, Skhiri, Nkounkou, Götze, Chaïbi, Marmoush.
Hoffenheim possible starting lineup: Baumann, Kabak, Grillitsch, Brooks, Bebou, Stach, Tohumcu, Jurásek, Kramarić, Weghorst, Beier.
Our in-house predictive model, BETSiE, has had a go at predicting the Bundesliga standings ahead of the Frankfurt vs Hoffenheim, currently 6th vs 7th, fixture by utilising the underlying data from the 2023/24 season up until this point.
For more league-specific BETSiE content including standings, probabilities and predictions, visit her page here – it’s worth it.
Position | Club | Game | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Bayer Leverkusen | 34 | 25.9 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 82.5 | 26.9 | 55.6 | 83.9 |
2 | Bayern Munich | 34 | 25.2 | 3.6 | 5.2 | 92.7 | 35.5 | 57.2 | 79.2 |
3 | Stuttgart | 34 | 20.7 | 4.2 | 9.1 | 74.0 | 44.0 | 30.0 | 66.3 |
4 | RB Leipzig | 34 | 18.7 | 6.2 | 9.1 | 72.4 | 41.7 | 30.8 | 62.4 |
5 | Dortmund | 34 | 16.0 | 10.2 | 7.8 | 66.9 | 47.5 | 19.3 | 58.3 |
6 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 34 | 11.6 | 12.4 | 10.1 | 51.2 | 49.4 | 1.8 | 47.1 |
7 | Freiburg | 34 | 12.2 | 7.5 | 14.3 | 46.7 | 58.9 | -12.2 | 44.2 |
8 | Hoffenheim | 34 | 11.7 | 8.3 | 14.0 | 57.6 | 63.1 | -5.5 | 43.4 |
9 | Werder Bremen | 34 | 11.1 | 8.5 | 14.5 | 45.5 | 54.4 | -8.8 | 41.7 |
10 | Augsburg | 34 | 9.8 | 10.4 | 13.8 | 48.6 | 59.5 | -10.9 | 39.7 |
11 | B. Monchengladbach | 34 | 10.1 | 9.5 | 14.5 | 58.0 | 63.1 | -5.1 | 39.6 |
12 | Wolfsburg | 34 | 9.8 | 9.4 | 14.8 | 42.4 | 53.4 | -11.0 | 38.8 |
13 | Heidenheim | 34 | 9.8 | 9.3 | 14.9 | 46.3 | 61.7 | -15.4 | 38.6 |
14 | Union Berlin | 34 | 10.6 | 6.5 | 16.8 | 37.7 | 54.5 | -16.9 | 38.5 |
15 | Bochum | 34 | 8.6 | 12.4 | 13.0 | 43.7 | 64.9 | -21.2 | 38.2 |
16 | Mainz | 34 | 6.3 | 11.6 | 16.1 | 32.9 | 51.7 | -18.8 | 30.6 |
17 | FC Koln | 34 | 5.7 | 10.3 | 18.0 | 28.7 | 58.6 | -29.8 | 27.5 |
18 | Darmstadt | 34 | 4.3 | 9.2 | 20.5 | 35.6 | 74.6 | -39.0 | 22.1 |
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