Fiorentina vs AC Milan Prediction: Team News and Lineups Preview

La Viola is the only Italian side, with Atalanta, still involved in three competitions and to look at their next home match our Italian football expert, Daniele Fisichella, has prepared Fiorentina vs AC Milan prediction, team news, lineups and fixtures preview.

Prediction: Fiorentina 1-2 AC Milan

Before the international break, the Rossoneri strengthened their runners-up position thanks to their fifth win in a row. In their 3-1 success in Verona, AC Milan has also surpassed 5,000 goals in Serie A, becoming only the third side, after Juventus and Inter, to achieve such a landmark.

Looking for more Serie A content from Daniele? Check out Napoli vs Atalanta here.

1. Fiorentina vs AC Milan Tip 1: AC Milan Asian Handicap 0.0
2. Fiorentina vs AC Milan Tip 2: Both Teams To Score And Over 2.5 Goals
3. Fiorentina vs AC Milan Tip 3: Late Goal: Goal After 73:59

Fiorentina vs AC Milan Prediction 1: Keeping peace with the best

Italy, Serie A, Saturday, March 30th, 19:45 (UK)

In the last 11 games the visitors have kept almost the same rhythm as top of the table Inter. In fact, Stefano Pioli’s men collected 26 points, compared to the Neroazzurri’s 30, losing just one game (4-2 at Monza) and averaging 2.09 goals per 90 minutes..

AC Milan’s remarkable season is being overshadowed by their city rivals’ achievements, but aside from the elimination from the Champions League (where they gave a good account of themselves in the ‘group of death’), their numbers are really good.

Furthermore, the Rossoneri have only one point less in the table compared to 2021/2022 when they won the league and have scored the same number of goals (55).

The visitors have been badly affected by injuries, especially in Autumn, and haven’t always looked secure in defence.

Away from home, they’ve conceded 25 goals (fifth-worse record) and kept only four clean sheets.

However, they’ve also managed to win nine away games, including against top sides such as Bologna (2-0), Lazio (1-0) and Roma (2-1).

Rafael Leao & co are the only team, alongside Inter, that have always found the net away from home this season and you’d trust them to do the same also at the Artemio Franchi.

• Fiorentina vs AC Milan Prediction 1: AC Milan Asian Handicap 0.0  (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.87
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 6/10

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Fiorentina vs AC Milan Prediction 2: A bad away defensive record

Equally, it’s hard to imagine this would be a low-scoring game, considering AC Milan have only kept two clean sheets in their last 14 trips (against Empoli and Lazio), and Fiorentina only failed to score four times in all competitions during the current campaign.

In fact, the Rossoneri hold the record for most away games where both teams have scored (73%), and 10 Fiorentina’s home games, including the cup competitions, have produced the same outcome.

Some of AC Milan’s top players are in fine form. In fact last week Rafael Leao and Tijjani Reijnders have scored beautiful goals with their national sides and Yunus Musah and Christian Pulisic were crowned champions of the Concacaf Nations League with the USA national team.

La Viola have benefited from the signing of Andrea Belotti in January. The former Torino’s captain has only scored once in the last seven games with the club but his partnership with Lucas Beltran (three goals in the last eight) is working.

Nico Gonzalez is getting back to his best as Vincenzo Italiano’s side are unbeaten in the last six and have found the net with 16 different players in all competitions.

• Fiorentina vs AC Milan Prediction 2: Both Teams To Score And Over 2.5 Goals (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 2.25
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 5/10

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Fiorentina vs AC Milan Prediction 3: Emotions till the end

The hosts have two more points (with a game in hand) compared to last season but have already lost three times at the Artemio Franchi (in 2022/2023, they suffered four domestic defeats).

La Viola are always playing on the front foot but often leave themselves exposed.

In fact they haven’t kept a clean sheet in any of the five domestic big matches they played this campaign, but have scored two goals past Bologna, Lazio and Roma.

Fiorentina have the third biggest xGA differential (+7.35, behind Lecce and Inter) in the league, but in the reverse fixture, which finished 1-0 to AC Milan thanks to a goal from Theo Hernandez at the stroke of half-time, they were unlucky not to score at least once.

In fact, in that game, they had 21 shots and were denied the equalizer in stoppage time by a super save from Mike Maignan.

Eight of the last nine Fiorentina’s home games have registered at least one goal in the second half and in 11 AC Milan away games (a record for Serie A) there have been goals after the 75th minute.

• Fiorentina vs AC Milan Prediction 3: Late Goal: Goal After 73:59 (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.83
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 4/10

Fiorentina vs AC Milan Prediction odds via bet365 as at 14:30, March 25th, 2024. Odds may now differ.

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Fiorentina vs AC Milan Team News and Possible Lineups: Bonaventura and Hernandez suspended

Andrea Belotti and Lucas Beltran will play upfront for La Viola who will be without Giacomo Bonaventura (former AC Milan player). Sottil and Gonzalez will play on the flanks with Arthur Melo and Duncan in midfield.

In defence, Kayode and Faraoni are in contention to start as right back, and Martinez Quarta is ahead of Ranieri to form the centre-back pairing with Milenkovic.

In the AC Milan’s camp Kalulu, Pobega and Bennacer are not available due to injury and Florenzi will play as left-back.

The only doubt for Stefano Pioli is who between Thiaw and Kjaer will play in the centre of the defence. The Dane has picked up a muscular injury with his national side and might make the bench at best. Loftus-Cheek, Leao and Pulisic will support Olivier Giroud.

Fiorentina possible starting lineup: Terracciano; Kayode, Milenkovic, Martinez Quarta, Biraghi; Arthur, Duncan; Sottil, Beltran, Gonzalez; Belotti.

AC Milan possible starting lineup: Maignan; Calabria, Thiaw, Tomori, Florenzi; Adli, Reijnders; Pulisic, Loftus-Cheek, Leao; Giroud.

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The Predicted Fiorentina vs AC Milan Serie A Standings by BETSiE

Our in-house predictive model, BETSiE, has had a go at predicting the Serie A standings ahead of the Fiorentina vs AC Milan, currently 8th vs 2nd, fixture by utilising the underlying data from the 2023/24 season up until this point.

For more league-specific BETSiE content including standings, probabilities and predictions, visit her page here – it’s worth it.

Fiorentina vs AC Milan Standings Prediction

Position	Club	Games	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Inter	38	29.1	5.8	3.1	88.1	23.9	64.2	93.2
2	Juventus	38	23.4	9.2	5.3	58.6	26.2	32.4	79.6
3	AC Milan	38	21.8	7.0	9.2	70.0	47.8	22.2	72.5
4	Atalanta	38	21.0	6.1	10.8	71.7	39.9	31.8	69.2
5	Bologna	38	17.2	12.5	8.4	53.1	37.3	15.8	63.9
6	AS Roma	38	17.6	8.5	11.9	62.0	43.6	18.5	61.2
7	Lazio	38	17.7	7.5	12.8	47.7	38.8	8.9	60.5
8	Napoli	38	16.7	9.4	11.9	55.6	44.0	11.6	59.6
9	Fiorentina	38	15.9	8.3	13.8	54.3	46.1	8.2	56.0
10	Torino	38	13.6	12.8	11.6	36.4	35.3	1.1	53.7
11	Monza	38	11.2	12.2	14.5	37.7	50.0	-12.3	45.9
12	Genoa	38	10.7	12.6	14.6	38.2	47.2	-9.0	44.9
13	Udinese	38	7.3	17.5	13.2	39.7	54.6	-14.8	39.4
14	Lecce	38	9.1	12.0	16.9	41.0	60.6	-19.6	39.3
15	Sassuolo	38	9.9	8.4	19.7	47.9	65.8	-17.9	38.1
16	Frosinone	38	9.6	8.0	20.4	47.0	73.6	-26.6	36.8
17	Empoli	38	8.6	10.4	19.0	32.4	56.8	-24.4	36.2
18	Verona	38	7.8	11.4	18.8	36.8	52.2	-15.4	34.8
19	Cagliari	38	7.7	9.9	20.4	39.0	68.6	-29.6	33.1
20	Salernitana	38	4.2	9.7	24.0	31.3	76.3	-44.9	22.4

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Match Stats: never a dull moment when Milan are in town

• Four of the last six games between these two sides have produced more than two goals with both teams on the scoresheet.
• Fourteen out of 29 AC Milan games (48%, the highest percentage in Serie A) have produced at least four goals.
• There’s been a goal in the first half in all but two of Fiorentina’s fourteen games in Serie A this campaign.
• Only three AC Milan away games (against Bologna, Genoa and Lazio) have ended with less than three goals scored.
• Luca Ranieri is the italian defender who has scored more goals (five) in Europe’s top five leagues this year.

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Fiorentina Fixtures: still involved in all three competitions

• Vs Atalanta, Coppa Italia semi-finals (H)
• Vs Juventus (A)
• Vs Viktoria Plzen, Europa League quarter-finals (A)
• Vs Genoa (H)
• Vs Viktoria Plzen, Europa League semi-finals (H)

AC Milan Fixtures: the derby comes after Roma in Europe

• Vs Lecce (H)
• Vs Roma, Europa League quarter-finals (H)
• Vs Sassuolo (A)
• Vs Roma, Europa League quarter-finals (A)
• Vs Inter Milan (A)

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